An average of opinion polls from 31 July suggests he has a commanding lead of 37 points over his nearest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
No-one else in the crowded field of 14 candidates scores over 6%, and more than half of them are not even at 1%.
Back in mid-February, Mr Trump’s lead over Mr DeSantis in the average of polls was just two points (41% to 39%). That turned out to be the Florida governor’s high point so far, however. While his star has faded and his poll numbers have plummeted, Mr Trump’s support has remained rock solid.
And since the first indictment was brought in the first week of April – making Mr Trump the first former US president to face criminal charges – it has actually grown.
According to the average of polls, Mr Trump has been the first choice of a majority of Republican voters ever since that first arrest and court appearance. Most Republican voters see charges as politically motivated
According to Clifford Young, president of US public affairs with Ipsos, the bond between Donald Trump and his supporters – which equates to about 40% to 45% of the Republican electorate – will be difficult to break.
Even Republicans like Luke Gordon, who doesn’t support Mr Trump’s attempt to recapture the White House, viewed the indictment with some scepticism.
“I don’t doubt the legitimacy of the claims in the indictment, and I do not defend Trump’s actions,” the 21-year-old New Yorker said. “However, the motivation behind his prosecution and investigation remains of grave concern.”
- 76% of likely Republican primary voters said the classified documents indictment was “politically motivated”
- 38% of those voters thought it would be a national security risk if the former president kept nuclear or military documents after he left office. For the US public at large, the number is 80%
- 61% of Republican voters said Mr Trump’s indictments did not change how they viewed the former president, while 14% said it made them see him more positively
“We’re really dealing with the tale of two Americas and two distinct bubbles,” says Mr Young. “There’s one bubble that sees Trump’s behaviour as lawless. And there’s another bubble that sees him as their champion – and that he’s being attacked because of that.”
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